Advances and Applications in Statistics
Volume 28, Issue 2, Pages 77 - 108
(June 2012)
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ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: EVIDENCE FROM 18th AND 19th CENTURY ICELAND
Matthew A. Turner, Jeffrey S. Rosenthal, Jian Chen and Chunyan Hao
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Abstract: We investigate the effect of climate change on population growth in 18th and 19th century Iceland. We find that annual temperature changes help to determine the population growth rate in pre-industrial Iceland: a year 1°C cooler than average drives down population growth rates by 0.57% in each of the next two years, for a total effect of 1.14%. We also find that 18th and 19th century Icelanders adapt to prolonged changes in climate: these adaptations take about 20 years and reduce the short run effect of annual change in temperature by about 60%. Finally, we find that a 1°C sustained decrease in temperature decreases the steady state population by 10% to 26%. We argue that our results may provide some information about the effects that future global warming will have on poor populations in warmer countries. |
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