Advances and Applications in Statistics
Volume 18, Issue 1, Pages 1 - 26
(September 2010)
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FORECASTING OF HUMAN MIGRATION FLOW IN THE COMARCA LAGUNERA THROUGH THE APPLICATION OF MARKOV PROCESSES
M. C. Juan Antonio Gonzᬥz Mata, M. C. Ramó® Œuevanos Rojas, M. C. Cesar Uranga Sifuentes and Arnulfo Luevanos Rojas
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Abstract: The main objective of this Research Project is how to calculate the proportion of the people that tend to move within the metropolitan area of the Region Lagunera, for example, how to calculate the percentage of population that living in Torreó® ©n the next step will emigrate to Gó¥º and Lerdo within a established period of time. We know there are certain probabilities of an increment and population flow in each one of the three mentioned cities for the next 30 years, it is not possible to know for sure the value of those probabilities. Therefore, in this paper, the migration flow?s probabilities are estimated through the application of a stochastic model based on the Markov Chains Theory . |
Keywords and phrases: migration flow, Markov processes, matrix algebra, linear programming, stochastic model. |
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