Advances and Applications in Statistics
Volume 15, Issue 1, Pages 27 - 48
(March 2010)
|
|
APPLICATIONS OF BOX-JENKINS MODELS TO RAINFALL DATA OF CHIANG MAI PROVINCE IN THAILAND
Montip Tiensuwan and Sukuman Sarikavanich
|
and the fitted model for the number
of rainy days is the
with no constant included in the
models. The results from the periodogram analysis showed that the rainfall and
the number of rainy day series contained significant periodic component of 12
months which are the same results of the seasonal phenomena of ARIMA Box and
Jenkins models. The ARIMA with seasonal model possibly predicts the monthly
rainfall and the number of rainy days one year ahead with acceptable accuracy.