Advances and Applications in Statistics
Volume 11, Issue 2, Pages 229 - 237
(April 2009)
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SINGLE DECREMENT APPROACH FOR ESTIMATING EARTHQUAKE HAZARD RATE
S. Darwis (Indonesia), N. Sunusi (Indonesia), A. Y. Gunawan (Indonesia), I. W. Mangku (Indonesia) and S. Wahyuningsih (Indonesia)
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Abstract: Estimating seismic hazard rate is one of the central issues in earthquake prediction. The standard approach in such estimation is to use the likelihood of point process. In this study, an alternative approach based on hazard rate estimation methodology developed in actuarial study is proposed. In this approach, called single decrement, the earthquake occurrence time is the only random event. Using single decrement approach, an estimator is derived by means of exponential and uniform distributions of earthquake recurrence time. As an illustration, the proposed approach will be applied to some data taken from an earthquake catalogue. The proposed method yields some detailed information on waiting time of earthquake prediction. |
Keywords and phrases: hazard rate, likelihood single decrement, recurrence time. |
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