Advances and Applications in Statistics
Volume 11, Issue 2, Pages 199 - 215
(April 2009)
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PATIENT’S AGE DEPENDING HIV/AIDS EVOLUTION ANALYSIS BY MEANS OF A NON-HOMOGENEOUS SEMI-MARKOV MODEL
Guglielmo D’Amico (Italy), Giuseppe Di Biase (Italy), Jacques Janssen (France) and Raimondo Manca (Italy)
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Abstract: This paper describes
an analysis of HIV/AIDS dynamics, defined by CD4 levels and viral load, carried
out from a macroscopic point of view by means of non-homogeneous semi-Markov
stochastic process. This model permits a nonparametric approach in order to
study the evolution of HIV infected patients taking into account also the
different ages of the subjects. Among all results obtainable in this paper the
conditional probabilities that an infected patient will be in state j
after a time t given that she/he entered at time s in the state i and the probability that she/he will survive
until a time t, given the starting
state, are reported. Data refer to 2159 subjects enrolled in the Italian public
structures from September 1983 to January 2006 provided by ISS (Istituto
Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy). |
Keywords and phrases: non-homogeneous semi-Markov processes, survival analysis, age dependent model, HIV/AIDS. |
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