Advances and Applications in Statistics
Volume 64, Issue 1, Pages 23 - 32
(September 2020) http://dx.doi.org/10.17654/AS064010023 |
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FORECASTING NIGERIA’S PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE INCOME USING THE SARIMA TIME SERIES FRAMEWORK
David E. Omoregie and Patrick Osatohanmwen
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Abstract: This paper focused on the time series analysis of per capita disposable income of Nigeria for the period 2010-2018 using the seasonally adjusted auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) framework. The SARIMA model was used to fit the quarterly per capita disposable income data for the period under study and future values were also forecasted. The forecasted values were observed to be consistent with current realities, thus emphasizing the adequacy of the model in predicting the long-run trend of the variable (per capita disposable income). Forecasting per capita disposable income is an indispensable tool for inter-country comparison of economic well-being and for general assessment of inflationary trends in a nation. We hope the policy makers will find the results contained in this paper useful in drafting future policy framework relating to national subsidies and social safety net. |
Keywords and phrases: differencing, disposable income, forecasting, SARIMA, seasonality.
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