Advances and Applications in Statistics
Volume 63, Issue 1, Pages 59 - 74
(July 2020) http://dx.doi.org/10.17654/AS063010059 |
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FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERE VIOLENT EVENTS IN THE SOUTHERNMOST PROVINCES OF THAILAND
Mayuening Eso, Rhysa McNeil and Abdunfattah Masamae
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Abstract: For over a decade the unrestful or violent events in the southernmost provinces of Thailand have continued negative effect on many of their residents. The purpose of the current study is to describe the trends in the frequency of events and to determine factors associated with a severe event. Information related to violent events occurring between 2004 and 2017 was obtained from the Deep South Coordination Center, Pattani, Thailand. The characteristics of the events were the date, time, province, zone (road, private residence, business, public place, check-point, other), area (rural/urban) and type of unrest (shooting, bombing, assault, arson, other). A severe event was defined as any single event in which the fatality rate was 75 percent or higher. Logistic regression was applied to determine associated factors for a severe event. A total of 17,724 violent events were identified during the 14-year study period. Among them, 9,701 events (54.7%) involved victims, of which 3,125 (32.2%) were severe events (fatality rate ≥ 75%). Guns were the most common weapon used (66.1%). Year, time, zone, and type of unrest were significantly associated with a severe event. Severe events were more likely to occur in 2016 compared to 2004, the baseline year, and during the daytime (06.01 a.m. to 06.00 p.m.) compared to the nighttime (06.01 p.m. to 06.00 a.m.). |
Keywords and phrases: severe violent events, unrest characteristics, deep south of Thailand.
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