Advances and Applications in Statistics
Volume 63, Issue 1, Pages 23 - 37
(July 2020) http://dx.doi.org/10.17654/AS063010023 |
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FEMALE EDUCATION AND FIRST BIRTH EVENT IN EGYPT AS SIMULTANEOUS PROCESSES
Mostafa Sayed Mostafa Abd - El Hameed El Misery
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Abstract: In 2008, the total fertility rate in Egypt started to rise reaching a high of 3.5 births per woman in 2014 (Ministry of Health and Population). Education is also important in determining women’s empowerment, suggesting that high educational attainment leads to lower fertility. However, there are no studies that test this path and demonstrate the relationship between education and fertility of limited Middle Eastern settings. The time spent on education and the age at first birth has significantly increased in Egypt. In our study, we provide empirical evidence of the endogeneity of the two processes. We use data 2012 round of Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey (ELMPS-2012), a nationally representative sample of households in Egypt, for 4,336 married women 15 to 49 years. The survey provides detailed information for both education and birth event. The effect of unobservable characteristics that affect both processes at the same time was controlled using simultaneous risk modeling. On the one hand, exit from the educational system increases the risk of entering the first union. Also, there are unobserved individual characteristics that affect the occurrence of both processes simultaneously. If these characteristics are not controlled, then the effect of the completed education on the formation of the union becomes biased upward. |
Keywords and phrases: fertility, simultaneous hazard regression, education, Egypt.
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