Advances and Applications in Statistics
Volume 55, Issue 1, Pages 105 - 155
(March 2019) http://dx.doi.org/10.17654/AS055010105 |
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A STOCHASTIC PROCESS MODEL FOR THE SURVIVAL AND SPLINTERING OF TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS
Yongshun Xiao and Tony Wragg
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Abstract: In this paper, we formulate a (2-dimensional) discontinuous stochastic process model for both the survival from dissolution and the splintering of an organization, as a generalization of the model for survival analysis, to account for two of the underlying processes of the formation of splinter groups. We fitted six of its special cases into a set of data on terrorist organizations from a publicly available online database (the Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism’s Terrorism Knowledge Base) by the maximum likelihood method. We found from these data that: (1) the mean probability that a terrorist organization survives from dissolution is 0.3341 ± 0.2360 in its year of formation, and 0.1116 ± 0.1576 in its second; and (2) the mean probability that a terrorist organization survives both from dissolution and from splintering is only 0.0343 ± 0.0731 in one year, and 0.0034 ± 0.01445 in two years! These findings indicate that once a group of terrorists has launched an operation and has claimed responsibility for it, it immediately dissolves itself. This conclusion would probably apply more to terrorist cells, which usually lack a well and rigidly defined organizational structure. We also outline the limitations of our models and findings, and point out areas for future work. |
Keywords and phrases: discontinuous stochastic process, survival, splinters, schisms, models, terrorist organizations.
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