Abstract: The purpose of this study is to forecast the number of susceptible, infected and removed individuals of COVID-19 disease in Zamboanga City using the SIR model in R for the next 250 days. Data collected were from June 2020 to August 2022 consisting of the number of susceptible, infected and removed individuals in Zamboanga City. Results of the study showed that the number of susceptible individuals is decreasing in time as the disease spread continuously over time and the number of removed individuals is continuously increasing in time in the assumption that there is still an infected individual of the disease. Furthermore, predicted values showed that the peak of pandemic in Zamboanga City is expected to happen in the 134th day with a rate of infection of 1.177672.
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Keywords and phrases: forecast, SIR model, rate of infection, spread of the disease.
Received: September 18, 2023; Accepted: November 9, 2023; Published: December 14, 2023
How to cite this article: Florianmae D. Ogarte and Doeyien D. Misil, Forecasting the spread of COVID-19 disease in Zamboanga City using SIR model in R, Advances and Applications in Statistics 91(1) (2024), 77-82. http://dx.doi.org/10.17654/0972361724006
This Open Access Article is Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
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