Abstract: This epidemiological study made use of the stochastic chain-binomial model to estimate the basic reproduction number with a numerical computation approach to the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method in order to estimate the model parameters that best fits the data on the weekly number of infections on three regions of the Philippines, namely, Region III - Central Luzon (March 4, 2020:13 weeks), Region XII - SOCCSKSARGEN (July 1, 2020:8 weeks), and Cordillera Autonomous Region (CAR) (June 09, 2020:5 weeks). This study shows that the numerical computation of MLE estimate parameters of the stochastic chain-binomial model and their corresponding basic reproduction numbers are as follows: Region III Region XII and CAR |
Keywords and phrases: stochastic process, chain-binomial, reproduction number, numerical MLE, COVID-19.
Received: September 8, 2023; Accepted: October 18, 2023; Published: November 2, 2023
How to cite this article: Freddy A. Julkanain II and Azman A. Nads, Estimating basic reproduction number of COVID-19 with parameters of a stochastic chain-binomial model in three regions of the Philippines, Advances and Applications in Statistics 90(1) (2023), 59-69. http://dx.doi.org/10.17654/0972361723063
This Open Access Article is Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
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