Advances and Applications in Statistics
Volume 89, Issue 2, Pages 243 - 261
(October 2023) http://dx.doi.org/10.17654/0972361723060 |
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ARIMA MODELLING ON THE BROILER CHICKEN PRODUCTION OF DAVAO REGION
Japar W. Lementap and Gilbert M. Masinading
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Abstract: This study intends to forecast broiler chicken production from its actual observation in the next five years of data. The original time series shows a trend or a seasonal pattern. Such data are said to be non-stationary. A model is obtained through the ARIMA method for broiler chicken production known as ARIMA(1, 1, 1)(0, 0, 1)4. The findings demonstrate that the model fits their stated series well. The diagnostic testing was performed for the model’s correctness. The eagerly anticipated values of the series were seen to follow the trend pattern of their assigned determined historical values, which were stirring in a little higher direction, indicating a positive conclusion. This may assist most individuals in having a better grasp of the possible changes in values of the obtained data series.
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Keywords and phrases: univariate time series modelling, forecasting, Davao region, Philippines.
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