In this paper, two non-linear regression models are constructed, one of which gives the relation between life expectancy at age one and time, and the other gives relation between survivorship probability (SP) at age one and time. The construction of the models is based on Mitra’s [7] SP growth model, Romo and Becker’s [12] relation between life expectancy at birth (LEB) and SP, and Phukon and Ahamed’s [9] assumption between LEB and SP. The two models are simultaneously used in estimating/projecting LEB for India and her five major states. The estimates of LEB are found to be very accurate when seen in the light of observed data from sample registration system (SRS) based abridged life tables published by Register General of India and hence the projection of LEB must be reliable. The projection of LEB of India is found closely matched with the projection of World Bank for the same.

life expectancy, life tables, non-linear regression, projection of life expectancy at birth, stochastic models.

Received: December 30, 2021; Accepted: January 24, 2022; Published: February 7, 2022

How to cite this article: Md. Irphan Ahamed and Manoshi Phukon, A mathematical model for projection of life expectancy at birth using early childhood survivorship probabilities, Far East Journal of Theoretical Statistics 64 (2022), 45-68. DOI: 10.17654/0972086322002

This Open Access Article is Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License 

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