PREDICTION OF PELECANUS CRISPUS GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION USING CLIMATE DATA UNDER CURRENT AND FUTURE CONDITIONS IN IRAN
The impacts of climate change on the world’s biodiversity, is a major concern for the management and conservation of biodiversity. In the present study investigated the distribution of Pelecanus crispus in Iran using MaxEnt model. The impacts of climate change on the global distribution of species in 2050 and 2070 were also examined using MIROC5 and CCSM4 models and different climate scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 8.5). The results of model implementation with AUC equaled with 0.95 showed that both the model and the climate change scenario had greater range gain than the range loss. Also, the area of suitability changes by province showed that currently, Hormozgan, Sistan and Balouchestan, Golestan, Mazandaran provinces have the most suitable areas for distribution of Pelecanus crispus. All three provinces in the northern part of the country are among the 10 most suitable provinces for the distribution of these birds. But the trend of suitability changes in these three provinces has been declining in 2050 and 2070 and has declined in suitability from 2050 to 2070, and this indicates that in future, based on climate condition, distribution of Pelecanus crispus in the north of the country, especially in Golestan province, will reduce but the provinces of Hormozgan, Sistan Balouchestan and Bushehr are faced with an increase in areas suitable for this species.
MaxEnt model, habitat suitability, climate change, Pelecanus crispus.