USING THE ARDL AND ECM MODELS TO MEASURE THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL AND MONETARY POLICIES ON THE DOMESTIC SAVING IN EGYPT
This study is aimed at measuring the impact of financial and monetary policies on saving in Egypt during the period from 1970 to 2017. In addition, the relative importance of each of them and their role in mobilizing savings that help in finance investments and raise the rate of Egyptian economic growth has been noticed. The results of the study showed Johansen maximum likelihood (JML) and bounds test (BT) that there is co-integration between the model variables on the long run. In light of this, the autoregressive distributed lagged (ARDL) model was used to estimate long run relationships between model variables. Error correction model (ECM) was used to estimate short run relationships between variables. The results of the study also showed that there is a positive and significant impact of both gross domestic product (GDP) and workers’ remittances from abroad on do saving, and that there is a positive insignificant effect of the interest rate on deposits and monetary supply on domestic savings. Finally, it was found that there is a negative insignificant effect between saving and inflation rate.
the saving, Egyptian economy, autoregressive distributed lagged (ARDL) model, error corrected model (ECM).