DENGUE-CLIMATE PROJECTION MODEL OF SELECTED AREAS IN PENINSULAR MALAYSIA
Introduction: Dengue is considered as one of the most important mosquito-borne viral diseases which is able to spread rapidly causing morbidity and mortality in humans. The incidence of dengue has seen a 30-fold rise in the last 50 years and new cases have been reported in countries which had never experienced dengue before. Dengue and climate were claimed as interrelated where high temperatures and rainfall leading to dengue spread. The objective of this study is to determine the dengue transmission with climate as a driving force for the rising number of dengue cases. Methodology: Selection of hotspot and non-hotspot dengue areas in Peninsular Malaysia were identified. Dataset between 2009 and 2016 were compiled in weekly unit. Poisson regression was used to model relationship between the dengue cases count and the meteorological data. General circulation models (GCMs) were used to assess changes of climate that are likely to occur in the future. The projected dengue cases from 1970 to 2100 were only calculated for Petaling and Johor Bahru based on both representative concentration pathway (RCPs) scenarios. Result: Our model showed correlation coefficient from 0.53 to 0.95 between the observed and simulated dengue cases count at significant level of 0.05. The projected dengue cases in Petaling following RCP8.5 is four-fold of that projected under the RCP4.5 scenario. It appears to be less sensitive to the magnitude of the temperature changes in Johor Bahru. Conclusion: This study would provide the basis for policy makers to formulate the adaptation needs in management of dengue fever with the anticipated climate change.
dengue, climate, Poisson-regression, general circulation model (GCM).