Advances and Applications in Statistics
Volume 28, Issue 1, Pages 45 - 54
(May 2012)
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RESERVE ESTIMATION
Sutawanir Darwis, Agus Yodi Gunawan, Asep K. Permadi and Nina Fitriyati
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Abstract: Recovery factor is an important aspect in reservoir reserve estimation study. Displacement efficiency studies of particular types of reservoir mechanism are used to determine the recovery factor. The study of efficiency of water injection is based on fluid displacement front. Some indicators for injection efficiency are defined, i.e., water oil ratio, water cut, breakthrough time, etc. These indicators depend on reservoir parameters. Parameter estimation is an important issue in history matching. Improved forecast using available data, i.e., online updating, is an important issue in reservoir management. This paper aims to develop a Bayesian methodology for estimation of reservoir parameters and its application in reservoir efficiency. The proposed method consists of two steps: forecasting (prior) and updating (posterior). The forecasting step uses the frontal advance model and the updating step consists of weighted average of forecast and prediction error correction. The simulation study shows that the proposed method is able to estimate the parameters sequentially and is used for the prediction of injection efficiency. |
Keywords and phrases: fluid displacement, efficiency, Bayesian methodology. |
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