Advances and Applications in Statistics
Volume 25, Issue 2, Pages 153 - 164
(December 2011)
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ARIMA FORECASTING OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN TUNISIA
Landolsi Monia and Ben Rejeb Jaleleddine
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Abstract: The purpose of this study is to forecast energy consumption in Tunisia until 2020 using an ARIMA approach. After identifying the most appropriate model for the series using Box-Jenkins methodology, a projection was estimated for the period 2009-2020. The findings obtained in the study prove that energy demand will witness an increase at a rate of 17.14% during the 2008-2020. Rigorous policies on energy saving should be undertaken without harming the economic development in order to reduce energy consumption and to protect the environment. |
Keywords and phrases: energy demand forecasting, Tunisia’s energy demand, Box-Jenkins methodology, ARIMA approach. |
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