Advances and Applications in Statistics
Volume 24, Issue 2, Pages 107 - 128
(October 2011)
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ANALYSIS PROBLEMS AND CREATING FORECAST MODELS FOR CPI IN ALBANIA
Valentina Sinaj and Arjan Tushaj
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Abstract: In a competitive (market) economy, consumer price index (CPI), traditionally has been counted as life cost, is the most popular measure of inflation. It measures the change on time of the prices for a fix list of products and services that families usually consume. This list usually is taken unchanged for having a constant level of life. These facts insure us that the change of the CPI comes as the change of the prices and not from the change of other factors. Consumer price index is used as evidence for the inflation and is an apparatus used by authorities in order to attend the trend of the prices. Furthermore, CPI gives us a detailed view in the change of the prices for specific products and services and can help showing the areas when the supply factors could create inflation.
CPI and its components are used by the economists to avoid composing the national accounts with constant prices. Combined with the product and import price, CPI helps on despite of movements of the prices on different markets. It is also used by the business decision making regarding the wage, interests, insurance primes and court decisions. |
Keywords and phrases: CPI, analysis of correlation, econometric models for CPI forecast. |
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