Advances and Applications in Statistics
Volume 18, Issue 2, Pages 127 - 160
(October 2010)
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IMPACT OF THE LABOUR SUPPLY ON AN ECONOMIC SYSTEM: AN ECONOMETRICAL APPROACH ON CONGOLESE DATA
Merlin Guy Nkodia
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Abstract: Shortly before the 80s, Congo-Brazzaville has been fully hit on by the economic and financial crisis that resulted in macroeconomic unbalances, notably the balance of payments, the deficit public finances, inflation, unemployment and the gross domestic product regression. In order to solve this crisis, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) proposed tough measures. Among the measures proposed were the blockage of recruitments and advancements as well as the employees’ treatments and wages exhaustion in the Civil Service. The latter being the main employer, the frost of recruitments generated the rise of unemployment and the pauperization of young graduates. These macroeconomical measures brought out over-unemployment, due essentially to the natural increase of urban populations, the farming urban migrations provoked by a particularly unfavorable economic context of farming regions and the unsuitability of school and academic syllabuses.
The present work aims at in finding the channels that govern the market of work, in order to study its effects on the Congolese economy by means of a simulation model. The main findings that emerge are essentially of two orders:
- the Congolese traditional mentality of society turned more toward the security of employment, thus pushing the workers earning to serve more in the public sector than in the private sector;
- the increase of unemployment generates an ill-use of resources and a weakness of the incomes of people and reciprocally. |
Keywords and phrases: modelling, macroeconometric model, simulation model, dynamic simulations, variant, labour market, labour supply, economic system, autoregressive model. |
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